Syrian rebels have launched an offensive in Aleppo following the withdrawal of Wagner Group fighters back to Russia.

In northern Syria, the rapid advance of rebels near Aleppo has been partly facilitated by Russia's reduction of its military presence in the country, as former Wagner Group fighters were redeployed to Africa. According to various reports, Bashar al-Assad has already flown to Moscow in light of this situation.

On Wednesday, Syrian rebels launched a large-scale attack on areas held by government forces. By Thursday, they had taken control of at least 19 villages, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They claimed to have captured 100 square kilometers of territory.

On Thursday evening, rebels were positioned just 10 kilometers from the outskirts of Aleppo and had cut off the strategically important Damascus-Aleppo highway, a source in the Syrian army told Reuters.

They managed to seize T-55 and T-72AV tanks, Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, artillery pieces, and other Russian weaponry, as reported by Telegram channels citing rebel videos.

In response to the offensive, Russian and Syrian aircraft struck rebel positions. The Syrian army stated that it, along with military forces from "friendly countries," including Russia, is attempting to regain lost positions, according to Reuters.

On Thursday, the YZH channel (formerly Brief) reported that Bashar al-Assad had arrived in Moscow. Political analyst Arkadiy Dubnov stated that the Syrian president is "awaiting urgent assistance from the Kremlin."

Over two days of fighting, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (based in the UK), more than 120 rebels and 60 soldiers from Bashar al-Assad's forces were killed, including 15 foreigners. Among the dead was one of the commanders of Iran's IRGC, Kiomars Pur-Hashemi. Two Russian soldiers, according to the rebels, were captured by them.

The rebels have taken advantage of the weakening of Hezbollah, which supports Assad's regime, due to the war in Lebanon, writes FT.

The opportunity for the offensive was also seen by the rebels in Russia's focus on the war against Ukraine and the weakening of its contingent in Syria due to the transfer of Wagner Group fighters to Africa, military analysts say.

Background. For more on the first anti-government offensive since 2020, read the Mind article “Strike on Russia” in Syria: how pro-Turkish rebels are advancing on Aleppo”.