Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 with an army of approximately 200,000 soldiers. As of today, the number of Russian military personnel engaged in the war against Ukraine has reached 608,000. Over the course of three years, Russia has tripled its army size.
This was stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
In response to questions from the audience during the panel, he continued to criticize the weak defense policy of the European Union and called for an increase in weapon production.
At the beginning of the invasion, 90% of military aid to Ukraine came from the United States. Currently, 40% of military supplies are provided by Ukraine itself, just over 30% from the U.S., and slightly less than 30% from European countries, Zelensky reported.
“We are managing thanks to the growth of domestic weapon production. But we (Ukraine) have grown exponentially, while Europe has not,” he said.
He outlined the potential actions Putin could take if reliable security guarantees are not offered to Ukraine in negotiations to end the war.
“Putin currently has about 30 factories in the military-industrial complex. In Europe, there are 45 (factories). Yet, Putin produces twice as much as Europe. So you understand – he is investing everything into production. Meanwhile, Europe is under-investing. Despite having greater technical capabilities, without U.S. assistance, we will have to rely solely on ourselves and Europe, which is insufficient. Europe and the United States need to be united,” said the Ukrainian president.
“If Putin returns – he will undoubtedly come back with an army 10 times larger than the 200,000 at the beginning of 2022, as it is already four times greater,” Zelensky stated.
To prevent such a scenario, he identified the security guarantees that should be provided to Ukraine: NATO membership, the deployment of long-range weapons in Ukraine, and the stationing of military contingents from allied countries.
According to Zelensky, Putin's goal is the complete occupation of all post-Soviet countries.
“Then he will act as he did with our Crimea – he will move into other EU and NATO countries to establish a foothold, making demands and issuing ultimatums. Someone will have to exit NATO – our Baltic friends, Finland, Sweden. He will try to pull you all back into his world, which already exists in his mind. This is what will happen if there are no security guarantees,” Zelensky said.
One of Putin's key demands in potential negotiations is to reduce the Ukrainian army by five times, according to the president.
Therefore, Putin will exert pressure on the U.S. and allies to force us to shrink our army by five times.
“Because if we can build an army of 800,000 plus, then together with the European army, we can not only defend ourselves but also push back against Putin. Thus, he will pressure the U.S. to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to reduce its army. That is what he wants,” Zelensky stated.
He urged that in discussions with Trump, the voices of European leaders should be loud and convey the truth about the real risks to Europe amidst the waves of disinformation.
“Trump told me, and later said publicly, that he would do everything to end the war this year. I told him that we are your partner in this, because this war is ours, and we want it to end this year more than anyone. But not just quickly; first and foremost, it needs to be fair and secure for us, Ukrainians, so that they can return home, live in safety, and work. And we will do everything for that,” Zelensky emphasized.